I KNOW St. John’s won’t stroll past Northern Iowa without a fight.

That sounds crazy after the Johnnies just put on a spectacular performance on their home floor to win the Big East Tournament and the Panthers finished in sixth place in the Missouri Valley Conference.

But both of those items require a little investigation.

The Big East this season did not live up to its expected level of play. To win the tournament at MSG, St. John’s beat just one team that made the NCAA Tournament. And while a dominant win over UConn is certainly impressive, teams with quality wins in March have certainly met grim fates when the Madness begins.

Northern Iowa, meanwhile, was just 10-9 in the regular season in the Missouri Valley Conference, constantly losing games to inferior opponents. The Panthers simply could not stop losing to various Illinois-related schools. Southern Illinois! Illinois Chicago! Illinois State! Northern Iowa collected the entire set.

But the Panthers played better than their record indicated. A 4-8 record in close games is not ideal but is also a little bit due to some bad luck. Injuries are certainly bad luck, with starter Tristan Smith missing eight games, in which UNI went 2-6.

The Panthers also bring a very specific style to the table. UNI plays one of the slowest tempos in college basketball and is dedicated to keeping the game in the halfcourt. This is a bottom five offensive rebounding team in the country, almost by choice. Head coach Ben Jacobsen sacrifices rebounds for making sure his defense is set. UNI opponents get transition looks on just 11.6 out of 100 possessions, per Hoop-Explorer, bottom 3 percentile in the country.

And setting the defense works. Northern Iowa ranks 23rd in defensive efficiency, forcing teams to grind for every chance to score.

That’s going to be a grind even for a bully-ball team like the Johnnies. Rick Pitino’s Red Storm shoots in transition on 21 out of every 100 plays, in the 95th percentile nationally.

I have not fully talked myself into this as a potential upset, but I know it won’t be easy for the Johnnies.

I KNOW Tennessee is going to grind its opponent into a fine, squishy paste on the glass.

The Volunteers are not just the best offensive rebounding team in college basketball this season, but one of the best in recent memory. Tennessee grabbed 45 percent of its own misses this season, the highest mark since Michigan State in 2001. We’re talking pre-COVID, pre-iPhone, pre-9/11. Billie Eilish’s entire lifetime has occurred since a team dominated the offensive glass that much.

March’s first contestant in the “Can You Box Out Tennessee?” sweepstakes will be either SMU or Miami (OH), following their First Four matchup.

Miami has been solid on the defensive glass this season, yet not against competition anywhere near Tennessee’s size, speed, and tenacity. This is not the same as trying to keep Bowling Green off the glass.

Meanwhile, SMU ranks 228th in defensive rebounding and let good teams like Virginia absolutely punk them on the glass.

I know Tennessee would do the same.

I THINK the player most likely to have his One Shining Moment before Friday ends is Santa Clara’s Christian Hammond.

Let’s try a crazy prediction. There’s a ton of kinetic energy at play here. Hammond leads his team in scoring, shoots the ball well from deep, and is set to face off with a blue blood program in a key TV window.

Santa Clara kicks off Friday’s action against a Kentucky team that has been flawed all year. Don’t be fooled by brand names. These are evenly matched teams playing in a game that should go down to the wire.

If it does, Hammond is likely to be the hero and I will be pointing to this prediction as my greatest achievement on my deathbed. Sorry, kids.

I THINK that either Hofstra, Akron, or both can win Friday in Tampa.

The Pride and Zips (God, I love March) have both had really strong seasons, in very different ways. Akron’s been super solid, taking care of business against lesser competition, but failing to collect a signature win. Hofstra is the opposite, losing plenty of head-scratchers but beating Pitt and Syracuse.

These two darlings face two teams with major questions. Texas Tech lost its All-American JT Toppin to a torn ACL a few weeks ago. Amazingly, Tech hasn’t lost that much momentum and is still playing like a top 15 team, per T-Rank. Still, I’d certainly rather catch a team learning life without an All-American than play one with one on the floor.

Alabama, meanwhile, has issues of its own. Second-leading scorer Aden Holloway did not travel with the team after being arrested, reportedly due to having more than two pounds of marijuana in his possession. He’s unlikely to play another game for the Tide.

So can Akron pen in Texas Tech’s new offensive catalyst Christian Anderson? Can Hofstra survive a 3-point shooting contest against Alabama?

I don’t know that both will happen, yet I think we see at least one scare or outright upset.

I WANT a 15 or 16 seed to make a game competitive…

…but it’s such a long shot this year. It’s a longshot every year. That’s kind of the point, and I know that, but generally there’s a squintable path you can see. There’s a moment of weakness from the big boys or a stat that favors the little guy.

That’s really not in the cards this year, for a variety of reasons. People will point to how much stronger the top teams in the country have gotten thanks to NIL and the transfer portal, which also dilutes the talent at the low-major level. I hear that and it has validity, but the Fairleigh Dickinson, UMBC, and St. Peter’s teams that made miracles happen did not have some secret talent pool that is now gone. The gap might be wider but it is infinitesimally so. The real tragedy is the matchups set, by luck of the draw, are disasters for the little guys.

Tennessee State wants to create turnover chaos, and faces an Iowa State team that takes care of the ball at a high level. Idaho is a bunch of burly boys from Big Sky country, introduced to the junkyard dogs of Houston. Howard can do some fun things with a switchable, versatile lineup, but will be trounced by the size and speed of Michigan.

I might just be trying to reverse jinxing this into existence, but can you blame me?

I WANT to thank whoever set the tip times and TV windows.

Standing ovation. Perfect job. Thursday’s first four games are a perfect mix of potential upsets and genuinely well matched opponents. The last two games on Thursday have real blowout, asleep on the couch potential, with the second-to-last game on Friday on the same wavelength. Even better, Friday’s final game is Missouri-Miami, which may not actually occur. If none of us stay away to watch it, we can just pretend it never happened, right?

The one-seed, likely blowout games, are buffeted by some beauties in their windows.

You could put these games in any order and I’d have eyes on the TV every second of each, but when there’s some special sauce to the cadence of chaos, the world lights up a little more.

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Shane McNichol is the founder, editor, and senior writer at PalestraBack.com. He has also contributed to ESPN.com, The Action Network, Betway Insider, Rush The Court, Larry Brown Sports, RotoBaller, and USA Today Sports Weekly. Follow him on Bluesky @OnTheShaneTrain.